On the Wall Street Journal's Op-Ed pages this past Tuesday, Professor Fouad Ajami of Johns Hopkins University warned of the consequences of the new administration's apparent desire to return to a foreign policy of Realpolitik in the Middle East. President-elect Obama will jettison the "diplomacy of freedom" advocated by President George W. Bush in his many freedom speeches, which addressed the need to foster democracy and freedom in the Middle East. Rather, Obama "signals fatigue" with Bush's policy and "an acceptance of [the Middle East's] order of power," i.e., the dominance of strong-man regimes (e.g., Mubarak, Assad) and of Iran and its proxies (e.g., Hezbollah and Hamas). But, as Professor Ajami points out, there are risks with this new policy "of caution and reticence." There are "enemies who could see through, and test, our fatigue," such as Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Qaeda, and Russia, just to name a few.
Unquestionably, Obama will be tested straight out of the gate. If he turns out to be another Jimmy Carter (or worse), these enemies will be encouraged. If Obama proves to be too weak or detached to properly handle foreign affairs in the rough neighborhood of the Middle East, there will be a real risk of a new 9/11 happening sometime during Obama's administration. The scenario played out in Linda Cargill's THE BLACK STONE could become a reality.
Unquestionably, Obama will be tested straight out of the gate. If he turns out to be another Jimmy Carter (or worse), these enemies will be encouraged. If Obama proves to be too weak or detached to properly handle foreign affairs in the rough neighborhood of the Middle East, there will be a real risk of a new 9/11 happening sometime during Obama's administration. The scenario played out in Linda Cargill's THE BLACK STONE could become a reality.
Vice President Dick Cheney was recently asked by Rush Limbaugh during an interview regarding what he considered the Bush Administration's greatest accomplishment. Cheney replied that he thought the current administration's greatest accomplishment was keeping the American homeland safe from another large-scale terrorist attack after 9/11. This may be the upcoming Obama administration's greatest challenge (even though it appears that the President-elect does not realize it). Can the new administration continue to keep us safe? The danger of another terrorist attack, including either a chemical, biological or nuclear attack, remains very high. It will take a large amount of focus, time and effort on the part of the newly elected President to continue to thwart the efforts of Al Qaeda and its allies. The potential catastrophic results if the new President acts too cautiously or vacillates in the face of the terror threat is well illustrated in Linda Cargill's novel THE BLACK STONE, which relates the fictional tale of how the next 9/11 will unfold.
Russia's announcement yesterday that it will give Lebanon 10 Mig29 jet fighters is just one of a series of moves that Russia is taking to challenge America's preeminence in the Middle East. Russia, along with a number of other gas producers, is also scheduled to create a new gas cartel just two days before Christmas. When energy prices eventually rebound from their lows, Russia hopes to be able to exercise increased clout in the Middle East by virtue of the new cartel's ability to manipulate the supply of gas to countries like the United States, which now consumes more gas that it can produce.
Russia has moved to restore its influence in the Middle East, just a month before the inauguration of President-elect Obama. Russia has offered to give Lebanon 10 MIG-29 jet fighters, which are considered to be as advanced and sophisticated as the United States' F-16s. Currently, Lebanon has only 1950s-era jets and some Vietnam-era helicopters. Traditionally, Lebanon's armed forces have been trained and supplied by the United States, but we have been reluctant to give Lebanon advanced weaponry, fearing that it would fall into the hands of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
Russia's offer is obviously a move both to test Obama right out of the gate and to restore its influence in the Middle East, which reached a nadir after 9/11 and the US invasion of Iraq. The US should work to block the delivery of Russian jet fighters to Lebanon, even if it requires us to upgrade the Lebanese air force ourselves. The US must stay fully engaged in Middle Eastern affairs, despite our expected drawdown of forces in Iraq.
Russia's offer is obviously a move both to test Obama right out of the gate and to restore its influence in the Middle East, which reached a nadir after 9/11 and the US invasion of Iraq. The US should work to block the delivery of Russian jet fighters to Lebanon, even if it requires us to upgrade the Lebanese air force ourselves. The US must stay fully engaged in Middle Eastern affairs, despite our expected drawdown of forces in Iraq.
Just 10 terrorists brought Mumbai, India's financial and commercial capital, to a standstill for nearly three days, while killing 174 and wounding 239. The dead include at least 6 Americans, as well as Germans, Canadians, Israelis, and citizens of Great Britain, Italy, Japan, China, Thailand, Australia, and Singapore. The attacks threaten to derail peace talks between India and Pakistan. The attacks, which were on multiple sites, were well planned and organized, and which targeted Americans, Britons and Jews, have all the hallmarks of an al Qaeda operation. Even if al Qaeda is not directly responsible, certainly the attacks by Muslim extremists were inspired or aided by al Qaeda.
As the attacks in Mumbai demonstrate, the War on Terror is far from over, despite the success of the surge in Iraq. A renewed wave of terrorism is likely to greet the new administration of President-elect Obama as a test of his and America's resolve. Such a resurgence in terror attacks forms the backdrop for the thriller THE BLACK STONE by Linda Cargill, with catastrophic results for the United States. Despite our economic problems, the United States cannot afford to abandon or weaken its efforts to combat the terrorists.
As the attacks in Mumbai demonstrate, the War on Terror is far from over, despite the success of the surge in Iraq. A renewed wave of terrorism is likely to greet the new administration of President-elect Obama as a test of his and America's resolve. Such a resurgence in terror attacks forms the backdrop for the thriller THE BLACK STONE by Linda Cargill, with catastrophic results for the United States. Despite our economic problems, the United States cannot afford to abandon or weaken its efforts to combat the terrorists.
At the end of last year right before the primaries started, I looked at the roster of candidates for both the Repubican and Democratic Parties. I asked myself which one I could logically see as President. The only answer I could come up with was McCain. He is not Bush, who was the model for my President in The Black Stone, but he seemed better than the others, especially when it comes to foreign policy. But now in the last hours before the end of the election, though I have not varied one iota in my opinions, a sense of gloom seems to have overtaken the situation. I think that Obama will win and become President. I think this is unfortunate, but so it is. Starting tomorrow I am going to hold my subscription to the Wall Street Journal from now until after the Inauguration. I am going to end my email CNN subscriptions to various news categories. I survived a news blackout back during the 1990's when Clinton was President. I think I will do the same thing again. I will go on the White House website and listen to as many of Bush's speeches as I can between now and when he leaves office.
The leaders of Lithuania and Poland insisted today that there should be no European Union talks with Russia until it fully respects the ceasefire with Georgia that ended this past summer's Georgian-Russian conflict. In particular, they complained that Russia has failed to respect ceasefire clauses requiring the withdrawal of Russian troops to pre-conflict positions and that Russia has interfered with free access to humanitarian aid. The foreign ministers of the members countries of the EU are scheduled to meet on November 10th to decide whether the EU-Russia partnership talks should go forward. Some EU member states, such as France, appear to be ready to give these talks the green light so as not to antagonize Russia, while others, mainly ex-communist states like Lithuania and Poland, want to hold Russia's feet to the fire with respect to compliance with the terms of the ceasefire.
The EU member states should heed the leaders of Lithuania and Poland and not appease Russia. Russia should be forced to fully comply with the ceasefire terms as a pre-condition to any future EU-Russia talks. Otherwise, Russia will conclude that aggression pays, and that the EU will simply overlook Russia's continued military occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The EU member states should heed the leaders of Lithuania and Poland and not appease Russia. Russia should be forced to fully comply with the ceasefire terms as a pre-condition to any future EU-Russia talks. Otherwise, Russia will conclude that aggression pays, and that the EU will simply overlook Russia's continued military occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The member states of the European Union must decide by November 10th whether Russia has done enough to remedy the damage it inflicted in the Russian-Georgian conflict of this past summer to merit restarting partnership talks between the EU and Russia. That is the day the EU foreign ministers will meet to decide on the fate of the partnership talks. Reportedly, the members states of the EU are divided on this issue. The EU should vote to cancel the talks until Russia allows EU monitors into the break-away provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia has to date refused such access to EU monitors. Only by providing such access can the EU gauge what is really happening everywhere within Georgia's territorial borders.
On Monday, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili dismissed his prime minister in a shake up of his government in the wake of the Russian-Georgian War and the global financial crisis. In a meeting with parliamentary leaders, Saakashvili said that an "existential threat hangs over Georgia like a Damocles' sword," and that "[n]ew radical democratic reforms and liberalization are the only response to the challenges" faced by Georgia. Saakashvili appeared to recognize the validity of criticisms directed towards his government for cracking down on demonstrators in November 2007. He said the demonstrations last year "showed us the mistakes we were making" and that "the Georgian government and its president should listen more to the people."
Opposition leaders plan to rally crowds in Tbilisi on the anniversary of the government crackdown, November 7th. In addition, Nino Burdzhanadze, a close ally of Saakashvili in the Rose Revolution, announced Monday that she is forming a "clear-cut opposition party" called Democratic Movement--United Georgia, which will be formally inaugurated on November 23rd, the fifth anniversary of the Rose Revolution.
As Georgia takes steps to strengthen its democracy, the United States should continue to give the utmost support to this small but strategically located nation. As Americans go to the polls on November 4th, they should consider which presidential candidate is most likely to provide such support. The choice is obvious -- John McCain.
Opposition leaders plan to rally crowds in Tbilisi on the anniversary of the government crackdown, November 7th. In addition, Nino Burdzhanadze, a close ally of Saakashvili in the Rose Revolution, announced Monday that she is forming a "clear-cut opposition party" called Democratic Movement--United Georgia, which will be formally inaugurated on November 23rd, the fifth anniversary of the Rose Revolution.
As Georgia takes steps to strengthen its democracy, the United States should continue to give the utmost support to this small but strategically located nation. As Americans go to the polls on November 4th, they should consider which presidential candidate is most likely to provide such support. The choice is obvious -- John McCain.
Perhaps in response to the pledges by many countries around the world of $4.55 billion of aid to Georgia, Russia is now deploying 2000 additional troops to South Ossetia, raising the number of troops in the breakaway province to approxmately 7000. The Russians may also be trying to provoke "incidents" with Georgia by deploying armored vehicles in areas of South Ossetia that are ethnically Georgian and were under the control of Tiblisi before the recent Russian-Georgian war.
